Gold has kept its post-election momentum going. The metal moved up to around $4,135 in Asian trading on Thursday, reaching its highest level in two weeks. That follows a powerful session on Wednesday, when gold gained more than 3.5% in a single day, the biggest daily rise since mid-August.
The trigger was the result of the US midterm elections. Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress, and markets moved quickly to price in what that could mean for US government spending and borrowing.
Why the Election Result Helped Gold
With Congress now split from the White House, investors expect a period of political gridlock. In practice, that makes large new tax cuts or spending programmes harder to pass, which should mean less government borrowing and fewer new Treasury bonds coming to market.
Less supply of bonds tends to push their yields down, and that is exactly what happened. US Treasury yields fell across the curve on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield dropping about six basis points to around 4.90%, and the decline continued into Thursday.
The simple link: gold pays no interest, so when bond yields fall, the cost of holding gold instead of bonds goes down. A weaker dollar also makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. This week, both moved in gold’s favour at the same time.
The US Dollar took a clear hit. The Dollar Index (DXY) slid to near its monthly low around 101.10, which strengthened the case for gold as a better risk-reward trade in the short term.
Oil and Iran Add Extra Support
Lower oil prices have also helped. After the election setback, President Trump played down the chance of new military strikes on Iran, easing fears of further supply disruptions in the region. Cheaper oil reduces inflation worries, which in turn takes some pressure off bond yields and supports gold.
A Recovery, Not Yet a New Uptrend
This bounce stands out because it comes from a weak starting point. Only last Friday, gold touched its lowest level since September 2025. Even after this week’s gains, the metal is still more than 20% below where it traded before the US–Iran conflict began in late February. That conflict pushed energy prices and inflation higher, and the tighter Fed policy that followed weighed heavily on gold for months.
There is also a longer-term catch. Some analysts, including those at ANZ, point out that heavy US government borrowing has been one of gold’s main supports over the past year. If the new Congress limits that borrowing, one of the reasons investors have held gold could weaken over time, even if the short-term effect has been positive.
The Fed and Friday’s Jobs Report
The interest-rate outlook remains the key question. Before the jobs report, markets still priced a high chance of another Fed rate hike in December, with odds of around 79% on Wednesday. That keeps a ceiling over gold for now.
This is why Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October matters so much. Earlier signals have been mixed, with private-sector hiring from ADP coming in at about 86,000 and the services sector showing slower growth.
- A weak NFP number would likely reduce December hike bets, push yields and the dollar lower again, and give gold room to extend its gains.
- A strong NFP number would support the case for another hike, which could lift the dollar and yields and trigger profit-taking after the sharp rally.
Gold Technical Picture
Gold has turned the short-term trend in its favour. The metal has moved back above the important $4,000 mark and then cleared $4,100, with prices making higher highs and higher lows on the intraday charts.
First Support
The level gold just broke above. Holding it keeps the short-term recovery intact.
Next Hurdle
The nearest upside reference. A clear move above it would open the way toward $4,200.
Line in the Sand
A drop back below this round number would suggest the post-election bounce has faded.
Key Technical Levels
▲ Resistance Levels
▼ Support Levels
Gold Outlook: 5–6 November 2026
The election result has given gold its strongest push in months, and as long as yields and the dollar stay soft, the short-term picture favours further gains. Still, the rally has been fast, the Fed has not changed its stance, and the metal remains well below its pre-war levels. We see $4,100 as the level to hold, with Friday’s jobs data likely to decide whether gold can push on toward $4,200 or pull back toward $4,000.
Three Scenarios for the Rest of the Week
Base case: gold holds above $4,100
Yields and the dollar stay near their lows ahead of the data. Gold trades between $4,100 and $4,160 as traders wait for NFP.
▲ Upside case: soft jobs report
A weak NFP reading cuts December hike bets. Yields fall further, the dollar weakens, and gold breaks above $4,160 to test $4,200.
▼ Downside case: strong jobs report
A strong NFP reading supports another Fed hike. The dollar bounces, profit-taking kicks in, and gold slips back toward $4,050 or even $4,000.
This Week’s Key Events
| Day | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov | Bank of England Rate Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims | Medium |
| Fri 6 Nov | US Nonfarm Payrolls (October) | High |
What to Watch
- US Treasury yields: further declines would keep the wind behind gold. A rebound in yields is the biggest short-term risk to the rally.
- The US Dollar: the DXY is near its monthly low. A break lower would add support, while a recovery could cap gold’s gains.
- Fed rate expectations: any drop in December hike odds after the jobs data would be positive for gold.
- Iran and oil: calmer headlines keep oil and inflation fears in check. Any renewed escalation could quickly change the picture.
- US fiscal outlook: how the new Congress handles spending and borrowing will shape gold’s longer-term direction.
Bottom Line — Achiever Global Markets
The Democrats’ sweep of Congress has pushed US yields and the dollar lower, giving gold its best run in months. $4,100 is now the key support, with $4,160 and $4,200 the levels to beat on the upside. The rally is real, but it is still a recovery from deep lows, and Friday’s jobs report will show whether it has the strength to continue.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Trading CFDs on gold and other commodities involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market levels referenced are as of 5 November 2026.